Mapping NCAA Tourney Success

From the NY Times - a great visual that shows where NCAA tourney wins come from:

What to look forward to

Jay Bilas has a great overview of what to look forward to this season. It's the best thing I've read so far in terms of what to be on the lookout for.

Pre-season picks are stupid

Take it from a Cal fan - there's absolutely nothing to be taken seriously from pre-season polls, All-American teams, potential Heisman candidates, etc. There isn't even such a thing as being "in the running for the Heisman". You either win it or you don't. So for CBS to call Kentucky's John Wall the preseason player of the year is absurd (and who the goddamned hell is Gary Parrish? That kid should be mowing my lawn fer chrissakes). What's more absurd is that he's even at a major university - the kid is part of John Calipari's mafia of illiterates, but that's beside the point in my diatribe. The kid is decent, but he's 18 years old. Any team who has any balls will just shut-him-down. It can be done. So why even put up these kids of things? CBS has to sell some advertising, but shame on them for doing it on the shoulders of teenagers.

Presidential picks...

You've all probably seen this - President Obama filled out his brackets. This should be a seemingly small thing - just another political media distraction. But for a basketball fan, it's not. It's really actually very cool, and that's because the most important person in the world took time out of his schedule (a schedule that includes fixing the world's economy, creating a health care system for 300 million people, and actually reading that copy of the Constitution that his predecessor lost) to weigh the merits of 65 college basketball teams. I love that. But like a true bracketarian, he's got some illegible handwriting, cross-outs, and you can see that for this man of certitude and resolve, his humaness comes out in how his brackets are written - there is hesitancy, risk-taking, and sheer throwing caution to the wind in here. And that's why, boys and girls, March Madness is the most important thing in the world (besides steak), because it mirrors the human condition. Or at least the condition of people who have nothing better to do than fill out brackets...

More from the NYT...

The "Where Are They Now" file: Ed O'Bannon

Johnny Dawkins was my favorite college player of all time. Larry Bird was the second. Ed O'Bannon was a close third. He played beautifully - the classic big man who could move gracefully and whose game could be played effectively both in the key and on the perimeter. I never saw Connie Hawkins play, but I imagine that O'Bannon was cut from the same cloth.

Here's an update on his life after his NBA career was cut short due to injuries - he's selling cars in Las Vegas, and still a good guy: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/the_bonus/03/18/obannon/index.html

"Northridge's deaf player provides extra inspiration"

From the San Jose Mercury News:

http://www.mercurynews.com/sports/ci_11946770

KANSAS CITY — He is believed to be the first deaf athlete playing in the NCAA tournament, but Michael Lizarraga isn't concerned with making history. Only that he and his Cal State-Northridge teammates are here.

"It's just like, 'Wow,' it's amazing I get to be here with the team and playing this tournament," Lizarraga, a sophomore forward from the California School for the Deaf in Fremont, said through an American sign language interpreter. "It's hard to put into words. It's the best feeling I could describe.

"It's so much fun."

...continued

Pro prospects in the tourney - from Coach Muss

Coach Eric Musselman, who runs a fantastic blog, has a rundown of pro prospects in the tourney. When it comes to tourney time, we just get inundated with Bill Raftery and Digger Phelps who go off on tangents and try to invoke Vitale-isms. It's nice to turn to commentary on this blog - I find that Muss is one of the few people hoops commentators who has an original thought and speaks the truth. Check out his post, pasted for you here - young players, take note and watch these guys:

A big key to winning in the NCAA Tournament is having pro prospects, whether NBA, D-League, or European League.
http://emuss.blogspot.com/2009/03/difference-makers-in-ncaa-nit.html

Here's a list of guys I'd consider "difference makers" at the college college level who are playing in the NCAA tourney. [Ranked by pro potential.]
SOUTH REGION 1. Blake Griffin - Oklahoma, PF
2. James Harden - Arizona State, OG/SF
3. Ty Lawson - UNC, PG
4. Willie Warren - Oklahoma, OG
5. Tyler Hansbrough - UNC, PF
6. Jonny Flynn - Syracuse, PG 7. Austin Daye - Gonzaga, SF 8. Gordon Hayward – Butler, SF 9. Ed Davis - UNC, PF
10. Manny Harris - Michigan, OG
11. Trevor Booker - Clemson, F
12. Marcus Thornton - LSU
13. Jeff Pendergraph - Arizona State, PF
14. Wayne Ellington - UNC, OG
15. Jeremy Pargo - Gonzaga, PG
16. KC Rivers - Clemson, OG
17. Matt Bouldin - Gonzaga, OG
18. Danny Greene - UNC, SG/SF
19. Josh Heytvelt - Gonzaga, PF
20. DeShawn Sims - Michigan, PF
21. Dionte Christmas – Temple, G
Others of note in South Region: Tasmin Mitchell (LSU), Matt Howard (Butler), Mike Tisdale (illinois), Artsiom Parakhouski (Radford), Matt Kingsley (SFA), Chester Frazier (Illinois/injured).

EAST REGION
1. Gerald Henderson - Duke, OG
2. Jrue Holiday - UCLA, OG
3. DeJuan Blair - Pittsburgh, PF
4. Kyle Singler - Duke. SF
5. Darren Collison - UCLA, PG
6. Damion James - Texas, PF
7. Eric Maynor - VCU, PG
8. Sam Young - Pittsburgh, SF
9. AJ Abrams - Texas, PG
10. Tyler Smith - Tennessee, SF
11. LeVance Fields – Pittsburgh, PG
12. Scotty Hopson - Tennessee, OG
13. Derrick Brown - Xavier, PF
14. Toney Douglas - Florida State, OG
15. Jon Scheyer – Duke, G
16. James Anderson -Oklahoma State, SF
17. Larry Sanders -VCU, PF
18. Corey Fisher – Villanova, PG
Other East Region players of note: Scottie Reynolds (Villanova), Dante Cunningham (Villanova), Dexter Pittman (Texas), Lawrence Westbrook (Minnesota), Ralph Sampson (Minnesota), Elliott Williams (Duke), Marcus Landry (Wisconsin), Derrick Mercer (American), Courtney Pigram (ETSU), Jeremiah Dominguez (Portland State), DJ Rivera (Binghampton).

MIDWEST REGION
1. Jeff Teague - Wake Forest, G
2. Jordan Hill - Arizona, PF
3. Earl Clark - Louisville, SF
4. BJ Mullins - Ohio State, C
5. Al-Farouq Aminu - Wake Forest, F
6. DerMar Derozan - USC, SF
7. Evan Turner - Ohio State, F
8. Terrance Williams - Louisville, SF
9. Cole Aldrich - Kansas, C
10. James Johnson - Wake Forest, F
11. Chase Budinger - Arizona, SF/OG
12. Samardo Samuels - Louisville, F
13. Devin Ebanks - West Virginia, F
14.Kalin Lucas (Michigan State), PG
15. Sherron Collins - Kansas, PG
16. Raymar Morgan - Michigan State, F
17. Taj Gibson - USC, PF
18. Tyrese Rice - Boston College, G
19. William Buford - Ohio State, OG
20. Tony Woods - Wake Forest, C/PF
21. Luke Nevill - Utah, C
22. Tyshawn Taylor – Kansas, PG
23. Daniel Hackett – USC, PG
24. Nic Wise – Arizona, PG
25. Ben Woodside – North Dakota State, G
26. Chris Wright – Dayton, F
27. Kenneth Faried - Morehead State, PF
Other Midwest Region players of note: DaSean Butler (West Virginia), Brandon Brooks (Alabama State), Goran Suton (Michigan State), Jeremy Chappell (Robert Morris), Nathan Bullock (Cleveland State), Chief Kickingstallionsims (Alabama State).

WEST REGION
1. Hasheem Thabeet - UConn, C
2. Tyreke Evans - Memphis, PG
3. Jarvis Varnado - Mississippi State, C
4. Jerel McNeal - Marquette, OG
5. Kemba Walker – Connecticut, PG
6. Greivis Vasquez - Maryland, G
7. AJ Price – Connecticut, PG
8. DeMarre Carroll - Missouri, SF
9. Robbie Hummel - Purdue, OG
10. Jon Brockman - Washington, PF
11. Lee Cummard - BYU, OG/SF
12. Wesley Matthews - Marquette, SF
13. Jerome Randall - California, PG
14. Ryan Whitman - Cornell, OG/SF
15. Patrick Christopher - California, OG
16. Isiah Thomas - Washington, PG
17. Jeff Adrien – Connecticut, PF
18. Gary Williams -Utah State, PF
Other West Region players of note: JaJuan Johnson (Purdue), Josh Carter (Texas A&M), Dominic James (Marquette/injured), Theo Robertson (Cal), Justin Dentmon (Washington).

Top NIT players ( ranked as pro prospects):
1. Greg Monroe - Georgetown, PF/C
2. Stephen Curry - Davidson, PG
3. Patrick Mills - St. Mary's, PG
4. Patrick Patterson - Kentucky, PF
5. Jodie Meeks – Kentucky, G
6. Korvotney Barber – Auburn, F
7. Jerome Jordan - Tulsa, C
8. DaJuan Summers - Georgetown, SF
9. Talor Battle – Penn State, PG
10. Nick Calathes - Florida, OG
11. Luke Harangody - Notre Dame, PF
12. Jack McClinton - Miami, PG/OG
13. Curtis Jerrells - Baylor, PG
14. Tory Jackson – Notre Dame, PG
15. Tony Danridge – New Mexico, OG/SF
16. LaceDarius Dunn – Baylor, OG
17. Chad Toppert – New Mexico, OG
18. Darryl Monroe – George Mason, PF
19. Glenn Andrews – Tulsa, F
20. Lawrence Kinnard – UAB, SF
21. DeQuan Jones - Miami, OG
22.Omar Samhan- St. Mary's, C
23. Damian Saunders - Duquesne, PF
24. John Vaughan – George Mason, G
25. Diamon Simpson-St. Mary's, PF/SF
26. Devan Downey – South Carolina, PG
27.Taylor Rochestie- Washington State, G

CSUN is going to win, CSUN is going to win...

...probably not. But that's the kind of thing that will be going through my head all day today and tomorrow. The only OTHER thing going through my head is: why do the Northridge uniforms and logo look like they belong in a Bakugan comic?

Beware the power of the #10 seed

From WSJ, and a perfect admonition for those who think picking the top seed will always put them ahead. For Cal fans, we'd do well to ignore this:

Beware the Power of the 10 Seed

There are very few things in sports more exciting, and more mischievously satisfying, than watching an NCAA basketball team catch fire and blow past two arrogant opponents in the tournament's first weekend.
It's too ambitious to expect any team seeded worse than No. 12 to make this happen, so the burden tends to fall on teams with seeds in the middle of the pack. And this year, if previous tournaments are any guide, the Cinderella is likely to come from the No. 10 slot.
Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, a total of 17 No. 10 seeds have won their first two games to advance to the Sweet 16. That's more than all the No. 8 seeds (nine) and No. 9 seeds (three) combined.
There's no conspiracy here. Because of the way the brackets are built, a No. 10 seed has an advantage if it wins its first game. While No. 8 or No. 9 seeds have the unenviable task of taking on a No. 1 seed in the second round, No. 10 seeds usually end up with a far more winnable game against a No. 2. Last year's example was tiny Davidson College, a No. 10 that beat No. 2 Georgetown on its way to the Elite Eight.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123734108334165043.html

Is that a hyperbolic parabola in your pocket, or did you just pick Syracuse?

The stats geeks are out in force for the tourney, as usual. It makes me happy to see so many people who have better things to do with their time actually wasting so much of it on March Madness. But when all is said and done (and by the way, it's been determined that I will have the final say from here on out), the guys with crunch numbers and pontificate on their methodologies neglect to consider some of the more important factors in determining winners during the month of March, post-St. Patrick's day, the most important one, as Rob Nakamura discovered in his doctoral thesis, is: school fight song.

But let's look at a couple theories...you have 103 minutes until the first tip-off, so you may as well absorb as much useless college basketball as you can:

From Dan Kuwatani:

Georgia Tech Professors Predict Final Four Match UpsImpressively Accurate Method Forecasts Tournament Results(March 16, 2009)

Come April 6, Tar Heel fans should have reason to celebrate - providing the math is right.
LRMC (Logistic Regression Markov Chain), the computer ranking system designed by three professors at the Georgia Institute of Technology, has predicted that the NCAA Final Four basketball match ups for 2009 will be the University of North Carolina vs. the University of Pittsburgh and the University of Memphis vs. the University of Louisville.

Computer ranking system designed by three Georgia Tech professors has an impressive track record in forecasting Final Four tournament results.

The championship battle, according to LRMC calculations, should pit North Carolina against Memphis with North Carolina emerging as the victor.

http://www.gatech.edu/newsroom/release.html?id=2682

From the WSJ:

The Science of Upsetology

At first glance, it's nearly impossible not to pick Kansas over North Dakota State in the first round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.

The numbers suggest Sherron Collins and his Kansas Jayhawks may face a stiff test in the first round.This is the defending champion, after all, a three-time winner whose former coach Dr. James Naismith, actually invented basketball. Current Kansas Coach Bill Self, whose team is seeded No. 3 in the Midwest Region, has a $30 million contract and a veteran point guard in junior Sherron Collins. North Dakota State, seeded No. 14 in the Midwest, just completed its first official season in Division I.

Yet, when sports forecaster AccuScore ran 10,000 computer simulations of the game between the Jayhawks (25-7) and the Bison (26-6), Kansas lost 22.6% of the time, more than any of the top-12 teams in the tournament. By comparison, Louisville, seeded first in the Midwest, won 97.9% of its simulations against Morehead State.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123724570347948481.html

Lou family values

The family that brackets together, stays together. And when a four year-old is participating, he chooses Butler to go to the Final Four because there's a "butt" in Butler. I'm so proud.

Fouls differential bracket

Those wacky intellectuals over at our subsidiary, the New York Times, has created a bracket based on team foul differentials. I think it's meaningless in it's methodology, but because they have Oklahoma going to the final game, I think they're brilliant.

Fouls, a Fair Way to Predict a Champion
Connecticut drew fewer fouls per game than any team in at least a decade (12.1 during the regular season). That helped the Huskies average 8.5 fewer fouls than its opponent each game — easily the biggest foul differential in the country. It helped UConn to shoot 773 free throws while opponents shot only 337. Does it matter? Seven of the past eight national champions, including UConn in 1999 and 2004, had foul differentials of 2.6 or higher. In this year’s field, only 11 teams have a plus-2.6 rate or better. Will one of them win the title?
http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/17/fouls-a-fair-way-to-predict-a-champion/

Fargo is not just an ironic movie

This is why I get all misty during this time of year. Did you see the North Dakota State team / fans / students get their announcement that they're going to the tourney? Just sheer joy and not because of impending NBA contracts or fat TV deals. These guys are just a bunch of Joe SixPackers and they have a lot to be happy about - they're the first team since 1972 to go to the dance in their first year of eligibility. God love 'em...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/17/sports/ncaabasketball/18dakota.html?ref=sports

Pat Forde may actually know a thing or two...

Pat Forde from ESPN has the most comprehensive overview of what it's like to be on top of college hoops in the month of March - great piece here on ESPN.com: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat&id=3982298&sportCat=ncb

U.S.C...really?

OK, so this is apparently why the Pac-10 decided to have a post-season tournament. Or was it for the money?...

From the NY Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/sports/ncaabasketball/15pac10.html?ref=sports

U.S.C.’s Bid Prospects Go From Problematic to Automatic

By BILLY WITZ
Published: March 14, 2009

LOS ANGELES — Over the previous two days, Southern California Coach Tim Floyd had pleaded his team’s case before every available television camera, microphone and notepad, arguing that the Trojans belonged in the N.C.A.A. tournament.

On Saturday night, a pulpit was not necessary.

The Trojans raced into the tournament, rallying from a 15-point halftime deficit to defeat Arizona State, 66-63, and win the Pacific-10 tournament. The victory gave U.S.C. the conference’s automatic bid.

Guard Daniel Hackett made the go-ahead free throws with 42 seconds left, and center Taj Gibson, the conference’s defensive player of the year, thwarted Arizona State guard James Harden, the conference’s player of the year, on two late drives to seal the win.

When Derek Glasser’s off-balance 3-point attempt missed and the buzzer sounded, the Trojans raced to center court and began jumping up and down.

Gibson let out a yell and Hackett jumped atop the scorer’s table in front of the fans. An hour later, as Hackett sat at his locker, his team’s 48-hour run had yet to sink in.

“I’m still amazed,” he said. “Seeing the clock at zero, the lady handing me the championship.”

Instead of the group that had struggled through injury and inconsistency, going 18-12 and finishing sixth in the Pac-10, the Trojans became the team Floyd had waited an entire season to emerge.

The freshman DeMar DeRozan, the apparent one-and-done heir to O. J. Mayo at U.S.C., was named the tournament’s most outstanding player after he had 25 points and 4 assists in the final. Hackett, who played every minute of the tournament, added 19 points and 6 rebounds. Gibson delivered defensively and Dwight Lewis — “who hadn’t hit a shot since January,” Floyd said — made a 3-pointer that brought U.S.C. to 63-62 with 1 minute 4 seconds to play.

When the Trojans went into halftime trailing by 15 points, Floyd reminded them that they had blown an 18-point lead against California earlier in the tournament and had nearly frittered away a 15-point advantage in the final three minutes against U.C.L.A. in the semifinals on Friday.

“Thank God that we know teams can blow leads,” Floyd said.

Floyd turned to a full-court press, something he had used only once this season. DeRozan made a 3-pointer to begin the half, and the quick pace of the game soon played to U.S.C.’s advantage.

Though the Trojans closed to 48-43 with 13:50 left on a layup by DeRozan, the Sun Devils held them off until the final minute.

“I wish I could tell you it was something tricky,” Floyd said. “But it was about the heart of these guys.”

And if the press had not worked, what would he have done next?

“Punt,” Floyd said.

An apt alternative for a football university that has now reached the N.C.A.A. tournament three years in a row for the first time.

Another of Floyd’s decisions turned out splendidly, too. In their previous two meetings with Arizona State, the Trojans had been unable to solve the Sun Devils’ pick-and-roll plays for Harden.

Arizona State had used the plays to get Harden into the lane, where he could create shots for himself or pass to open teammates.

But after Hackett’s two free throws put U.S.C. ahead, 64-63, the Trojans changed their defense. Instead of having Hackett fight through a screen set by forward Jeff Pendergraph, he and Gibson would switch.

“Oh, man, the rocker step is coming,” Gibson said of his thoughts, preparing for Harden’s favorite move.

As Harden drove left, Gibson got his hand on the ball — his fourth block of the game. He grabbed the rebound and was fouled with 16.7 seconds left, then made 1 of 2 free throws to give the Trojans a 65-63 lead.

With his team’s place in the N.C.A.A. field assured, Floyd finally acknowledged that he knew the Trojans had needed to win the final to get in.

“When they’re taking every team from the Big East,” he said, “you figure there’s probably not many spots left.”

Louisville is my new favorite

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/sports/ncaabasketball/15bigeast.html?_r=1&ref=sports

I say this every year - Louisville is THE team. I also say that any team coached by Rick Pitino will be ready for tournament action. I always say it. It never pans out...

Brackets due in one hour...

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